Dear Michael,
I am very glad to see from your letter of the 2^nd February¹ that you are feeling more optimistic about the European situation than you had been in previous letters. That feeling is reflected here. Some ten days ago we were all in the dumps, as all our information, especially the Press despatches in the 'Times' and the 'Telegraph', seemed to point to an early onslaught by Hitler in the West. It was difficult to accept that thesis completely, as one could not help realising the enormity of the catastrophe which was likely to follow a defeat, and the ultimate defeat of Germany seemed a certainty. We hear, as no doubt you do, that the material element in the German railway traffic system and in their factories is deteriorating. The financial and economic situation seems to be at least unfavourable for a warlike adventure, and if Hitler strikes now he will only do so because his internal situation has become so intolerable that only the external distraction of war can provide a remedy. Mussolini looked as if he might provide us with a sensation over the week-end, but fortunately, judging by the Press at any rate, he made no threats during the meeting of the Grand Fascist Council.

Of course, while Great Britain and Germany are arming at such a rate against each other the temptation must exist on both sides to finish the business once for all, and the danger and tension will continue to exist until some agreement is reached.