It would take a prophet to say when the war which everybody regards as inevitable will eventually break out. The inflammable material is daily piling higher but the war lords hesitate to apply the torch. At the moment, however, sparks are flying about and one of them may accidentally cause a premature explosion. Herein lies the immediate danger. Italy could not fight a long war and Germany is probably in the same situation. There are observers who are convinced that both these countries would be in the throes of a revolution within ninety days after the outbreak of hostilities. There are some grounds no doubt for their convictions and it is in the nature of things that disintegration in totalitarian states would proceed at a rapidity unknown to democratic countries.
The determined steps taken by France during the last fortnight have given the dictators food for reflection. For despite their internal bickerings and the seemingly erratic play of their party politics the French have the only army in Europe that is ready for war. They have a strong reserve of material and munitions and their naval and air forces will be able to give a good account of themselves should the occasion arise. This has been privately admitted by one of the highest military authorities in this country.
On the other hand Italy is not ready for another war. For years she had been building ships and airplanes for the conquest of Ethiopia. The efforts she put into that work were considerable and the success that attended them gave place to a period of physical and material exhaustion from which she has not yet recovered. Besides, the reward of victory for those who contributed to it was disappointing. The fertile land promised to the volunteers has not materialised and the hundreds of thousands of Italians who expected to emigrate to this new country are vegetating in every town and hamlet of Italy nursing their grievances and their disappointment. Of the many who answered the call, few, in verity, were chosen.
War equipment deteriorates rapidly. It is said on good authority that not more than one fourth of Italian armaments are in first class condition. The remainder is being replaced rather slowly. The raw material for this purpose comes mainly from Germany and delivery is said to be very slow because of the particular requirements of that country for her own immediate use.
A rumour has been going the round of diplomatic circles here which is probably true, to the effect that Hitler, in answer to the Duce's request for military assistance in case of a conflict with France, offered him only 200,000 men. As military experts know this force would not in itself be sufficient to turn the tide of battle. It may, on the other hand become an embarrassment unless its effectives are always kept up to full strength, of which there was said to be no assurance. Such a force could not be considered as anything more than a gesture.
I learned from one of the French Embassy staff yesterday that his government were agreeably surprised at the political and diplomatic reaction provoked everywhere by their determined resistance to what he described as the fantastic demands of the Duce. Their blunt warning to Chamberlain to refrain from discussing French interests during his visit to Rome has shown that Daladier has to some extent taken the wind out of his sails. He cannot now gain new prestige in 'giving away other people's property' as the French Ambassador recently said. His talks here with the Duce may therefore cover only matters of minor importance such as the possibility of extending credits to Italy and the rectification of British-Italian colonial frontiers. It is difficult to see how the Spanish question can be discussed excepting in so far as Italy's part in implementing the Easter agreement remains unfulfilled. One of the Fascist newspapers asserted a couple of days ago that no more Italian troops will be withdrawn until 10,000 of the foreigners fighting on the Loyalist side have been disbanded.
A big amusement programme is being arranged here for Chamberlain and Halifax. On the evening of their arrival they will have a conference with the Duce who that night will give a dinner and reception in their honour at the Palazzo Venezia. On Thursday morning they will visit the Royal Palace and sign the Book after which they will lay wreaths on the tombs of the Unknown Soldier and the Fascist Martyrs. Then they will lunch with the King. Later in the afternoon they will have a conference with Count Ciano who will have them to Dinner and the Opera. On Friday, they will visit the Pope after which they will lunch with the British Minister to the Vatican. On Friday afternoon there will be a concert in their honour at the Fascist Headquarters. Later they will witness gymnastic displays by Fascist youth at the Foro Mussolini and at night will assist at the Dinner and Reception with which Lord Perth will honour them. At noon on Saturday they will take their departure. In between these functions it will of course be possible to arrange for some talks but that will depend on the circumstances.
As a result of the despatch of French troops to Djibouti Italy has called up the volunteers who had already served through the Ethiopian war, very likely to serve in Africa again. The mobilisation note came as a New Year surprise. Secrecy is being maintained in relation to this move just as it was about the mobilisation of the Alpine divisions last September. Its significance cannot very well be ignored.
