My dear Michael,
A line to wish you Paula and Eoin a very happy Christmas and New Year. Judging from your reports you are finding Rome just as interesting as Washington. In some ways it must be more so. Mussolini has much more to say to the reshaping of Europe than Roosevelt, though Hitler's star must soon take all the shine out of his.

Do you feel that war can be avoided? I can't see it myself unless England makes up their mind to take second place. Six months ought to decide things one way or the other. By that time Germany will have become too strong and she can go on her way undisturbed. At least that is how it looks from here. With Romania coming under her wing she should soon be in a position to dictate to Poland and Russia can hardly make a fight against the liberation of the Ukraine.