In view of the position indicated in my Secret Report No. 51¹ of the 1st December it would appear that it will probably be necessary to proceed with the negotiations for renewal and amendment of the Coal-Cattle pact independently of the suggested Conference of Ministers.

If this view be correct full particulars of the proposals from the Departments of Agriculture and Industry and Commerce should obviously be available immediately.

The Trading Account on the Coal-Cattle pact for the current year will, it is anticipated, show a monetary advantage on our side of the account of about £500,000 - chiefly due to the rise in the price of cattle. It would not be unreasonable to think that the British will probably use this as a factor in resisting any proposals of ours which may mean a loss of revenue to them. I think therefore the Department of Industry and Commerce should make as strong a case as is possible of our purchases other than coal - notably the contracts for machinery such as those for the National Oil Refinery which had been placed with Great Britain.