With reference to your Minutes of the 19th of April (E.A. 288/83)1 and the 24th of May (E.A. 288/120)2 I am directed by the Minister Plenipotentiary to state that the reference to our cable of the 9th of May on the subject of the proposed Commerce Convention with the United States is not understood. My cable (No. 93) of the 8th of May had reference to the Tariff Bill before Congress.
In my letter to you of the 11th of May (45/25/29)3 I sent you a copy of the dispatch of the 10th of May addressed to The Secretary of State, and from private conversations with some of the most important members of the Ways and Means Committee of the House of Representatives and of the Finance Committee of the Senate, I am forced to the conclusion that there is little or no possibility of our Note to The Secretary of State having the slightest effect on the proposed tariff schedules.
The Minister will be glad if you will send him a draft convention, on the lines of those already made between the United States and various other countries which I sent you with my Note of the 4th of February (8/4/29) suggesting any changes you desire to be incorporated in the proposed convention and making any special claims which the peculiar circumstances of our case may warrant. This draft will then be used as a basis for discussion with The Department of State.
It appears from the memorandum accompanying your Minute of the 19th of April that the difficulty of obtaining any special treatment is more or less realized, but it is observed that the Department of State has no power whatever to undertake to obtain any special advantages for any country; this is entirely a matter for Congress, and it is futile to expect a departure in our favour by the United States from a principle which they have held religiously, more especially as we have absolutely no bargaining power whatever.
It should be remembered also that the present administration and the majority in Congress are pledged to high protection; indeed, in the recent presidential campaign the Democratic candidate was very careful to express himself guardedly on this subject, and it is generally understood here that a Democratic administration would be only in the slightest degree less avid for high duties than a Republican one. With the exception of Progressives and one or two Radicals the overwhelming majority of Representatives and Senators of either of the parties has in fact accepted the principle of high tariffs as one that in the present state of American commercial conditions must remain. Nothing less than a long period of economic depression would swing popular feeling to a different attitude on this matter. Rightly or wrongly, the vast majority of the people of this country believe that high tariffs have contributed largely to their extraordinary prosperity, and it should be realized that although we could make in connection with our commercial convention discussions an appeal ad misericordiam, it would not have the slightest effect.
As you have been previously informed, private memoranda have been written for the benefit of Senators and many confidential conversations have taken place with the object of explaining how the American tariff hits our industries, but it must be emphasized that naturally American politicians are primarily interested in their own constituencies and even in the case of the most sympathetic and well-disposed members of Congress, they would naturally sacrifice any of our industries for the benefit of the industries in their own local areas. This is particularly the case in the woollen trade as the American Woollen Company has many factories in New England which have been steadily losing money. It is accordingly foolish to expect that any of the New England Senators, such as David Walsh of Massachusetts, would recommend reduction, or even a non-increase in the tariff on woollen goods when the woollen industry which forms an important part of the economic life of New England is in a perilous condition owing to the competition from European countries.
It is unfortunate if public opinion in the Saorstát should be disappointed if concessions are not obtained from the United States Government under a Commercial Convention, but this appears to be inevitable, as we have not the slightest chance of getting any conditions better than those of the most favoured nation variety such as have already been granted to other countries. It might be well, in fact, by some means and if it is anticipated that dissatisfaction may be aroused, to prepare the ground for the inevitable disappointment which would be experienced by some of our manufacturers. It appears to the Minister to be better frankly to explain the situation as we see it here, as detailed above, rather than to arouse hopes which will apparently not be realized.
We shall, of course, on receipt of the draft convention endeavour for form's sake to extract some concessions from the American Government, but in view of their stand on this matter and of the result of our informal approaches, there seems to be little hope of success.
I have already written to you fully in connection with the embargo on Irish grown potatoes.
