A Chara,
The general situation at home here has undergone somewhat of a change during the past fortnight as you will have seen from the papers. The arrest of the President was quite an accident though the Military Authorities were very keen on getting him.² The moment was a very awkward one for the British Government as many factors were compelling them to put up at least an appearance of wanting to settle. Chief amongst these was the Imperial Conference, the leading spirit of which is very keen upon an American Alliance, which cannot be had without a settlement here. Consequently the President was released and the offer from Lloyd George forwarded to him. The object was twofold. First:- the chance that there might be a settlement on terms advantageous to England. Secondly:- the chance of throwing the responsibility on us for the continuance of the war in the event of the President's refusal. The idea behind the President's counter invitation was firstly to put such responsibility on the right shoulders if the negotiations failed and secondly the chance of reaching an agreement which would be satisfactory to all parties. This can be reached if the parties show sufficient statesmanship to recognise the value, both from the point of view of England and ourselves of an independent Ireland whose neutrality is guaranteed by England, the British Colonies, and America. In such a scheme the security of England from an attack from Ireland would be safeguarded and possibly the autonomy of Ulster within the Irish State. There is a chance this may be brought off. The alternative is a ten years war, which neither England nor her supporters here can contemplate with any degree of equanimity.

As I write things have taken a favourable turn. It is not unlikely that Craig may be forced to give in to the local conference. The release of Griffith is a distinct gain whatever the motive of those responsible. I would like to emphasise the advice already given that our Representatives abroad should be very slow to make any comment on such matters. It is always easy to put off interviewers by referring them to the Government here. When one is not actually on the scene it is very hard to know what statement best suits the intentions in the mind of those responsible for the movement here.