My dear Harry:-
As things stand to-day it means war. The British ultimatum is allegiance to their King. We will never recommend that such allegiance be rendered.

You know how fully I appreciate all that WAR means to our people, and what my misgivings are as to the outcome of war. Without explanation you will understand then that if I appear with those who choose war, it is only because the alternative is impossible without dishonour. For us to recommend that our people should subscribe with their lips to an allegiance which they could not render in their hearts would be to recommend to them subscription to a living lie and the abandonment of the supreme issue in the struggle through all the centuries.

As far as I am concerned, it is now - External Association, YES. - Internal Association involving Allegiance, NO.

I am writing before the final recommendation of our plenipotentiaries is made, and so am speaking solely for myself, but it is likely that my view will be that of the Cabinet as a whole.

You will have a heavy task 'keeping our end up' before American public opinion. When the proposals of our plenipotentiaries are published, point to them as showing the distances we have been ready to go to meet the demands of the British and allay their fears, however groundless - that further than this we could not go without betrayal of our principles - and of our dead.

I have been told that it was said in inner circles in English politics that if the English representatives at the Washington Conference could secure a certain object which they had in view without settling the Irish question then they would not bother trying to settle it. What the object is:- cancellation of Debt, English speaking alliance, or a scheme of Disarmament which would leave England top-dog on sea and land, I have not been able to find out, but it would appear that if they can get what they want in Washington, it means war to the knife against us. The danger is that they will succeed in America whilst we are talking here.
[133 words covering Christmas greetings omitted]